Research · Long-horizon data
100 years of returns: stocks, bonds, bills, real estate & gold
Annual returns for the main US asset classes from 1928 to 2025, based on publicly available historical return datasets published by academic researchers, extended with modern tech and blue-chip benchmarks that have proven durable. Updated automatically every January.
Value of $100 invested
Series that start later (e.g. US Tech 100 in 1986) begin at $100 in their first year.
Total CAGR and what $100 became
Compound annual growth rate (dividends reinvested) and final value of $100 invested at the start of each period, held to 2025.
| Asset | 1928–2025 | 1976–2025 | 2000–2025 | 2016–2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | $100 → | CAGR | $100 → | CAGR | $100 → | CAGR | $100 → | |
| US Large Cap 500 | 10.02% | $1.16M | 11.93% | $27.9K | 8.00% | $739 | 14.68% | $394 |
| US Small Cap (bottom decile) | 11.98% | $6.55M | 12.12% | $30.5K | 8.86% | $910 | 7.86% | $213 |
| 3-month T-Bill | 3.37% | $2.6K | 4.31% | $826 | 1.93% | $164 | 2.23% | $125 |
| US T-Bond (10-year) | 4.53% | $7.7K | 6.13% | $2.0K | 3.82% | $265 | 0.89% | $109 |
| Baa Corporate Bond | 6.63% | $54.0K | 8.54% | $6.0K | 6.30% | $490 | 4.29% | $152 |
| Real Estate | 4.20% | $5.6K | 5.17% | $1.2K | 4.70% | $330 | 6.49% | $188 |
| Gold | 5.61% | $21.0K | 7.11% | $3.1K | 10.96% | $1.5K | 15.14% | $409 |
| US Tech 100 | 14.57% | $23.0K | 14.57% | $23.0K | 8.44% | $822 | 19.54% | $596 |
| US Blue Chip 30 | 9.37% | $649.8K | 11.25% | $20.7K | 7.98% | $736 | 12.97% | $339 |
For periods before a series exists (e.g. US Tech 100 before 1986), the calculation starts in its first available year.
Average annual returns
Arithmetic average, geometric average (compound annual growth) and standard deviation.
| Asset | 1928–2025 | 1976–2025 | 2000–2025 | 2016–2025 | Std dev (full) | Best | Worst | Down yrs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arith. | Geo. | Arith. | Geo. | Arith. | Geo. | Arith. | Geo. | |||||
| US Large Cap 500 Total return, dividends reinvested | 11.86% | 10.02% | 13.17% | 11.93% | 9.58% | 8.00% | 15.75% | 14.68% | 19.40% | 52.56% | -43.84% | 26/98 |
| US Small Cap (bottom decile) Total return | 17.78% | 11.98% | 14.79% | 12.12% | 11.95% | 8.86% | 9.20% | 7.86% | 37.95% | 146.60% | -53.94% | 34/98 |
| 3-month T-Bill Average yield during year | 3.42% | 3.37% | 4.37% | 4.31% | 1.95% | 1.93% | 2.25% | 2.23% | 3.04% | 14.04% | 0.03% | 0/98 |
| US T-Bond (10-year) Total return | 4.82% | 4.53% | 6.60% | 6.13% | 4.19% | 3.82% | 1.22% | 0.89% | 7.90% | 32.81% | -17.83% | 20/98 |
| Baa Corporate Bond Total return | 6.90% | 6.63% | 8.86% | 8.54% | 6.55% | 6.30% | 4.66% | 4.29% | 7.65% | 29.05% | -15.68% | 16/98 |
| Real Estate Home price index | 4.38% | 4.20% | 5.32% | 5.17% | 4.91% | 4.70% | 6.59% | 6.49% | 6.18% | 24.10% | -12.00% | 15/98 |
| Gold Spot price | 7.36% | 5.61% | 9.38% | 7.11% | 12.32% | 10.96% | 16.53% | 15.14% | 21.51% | 126.55% | -32.60% | 34/98 |
| US Tech 100 Total return, dividends reinvested, since 1986 | 18.83% | 14.57% | 18.83% | 14.57% | 12.61% | 8.44% | 22.43% | 19.54% | 31.30% | 101.95% | -41.31% | 7/40 |
| US Blue Chip 30 Total return, dividends reinvested | 11.20% | 9.37% | 12.21% | 11.25% | 9.00% | 7.98% | 13.50% | 12.97% | 19.57% | 75.86% | -49.59% | 25/98 |
Equity risk premium
Excess return of US large-cap stocks over bills and 10-year bonds.
1928–2025
Stocks − Bills: 8.44% / 6.65% geo
Stocks − Bonds: 7.03% / 5.48% geo
1976–2025
Stocks − Bills: 8.80% / 7.61% geo
Stocks − Bonds: 6.57% / 5.79% geo
2000–2025
Stocks − Bills: 7.63% / 6.07% geo
Stocks − Bonds: 5.39% / 4.18% geo
2016–2025
Stocks − Bills: 13.50% / 12.45% geo
Stocks − Bonds: 14.53% / 13.79% geo
Annual returns, 1928–2025
| Year | US Large Cap 500 | US Small Cap (bottom decile) | 3-month T-Bill | US T-Bond (10-year) | Baa Corporate Bond | Real Estate | Gold | US Tech 100 | US Blue Chip 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.78% | 16.53% | 4.21% | 7.80% | 6.96% | 1.58% | 66.22% | 21.13% | 15.00% |
| 2024 | 24.88% | 8.70% | 5.18% | -1.64% | 1.74% | 3.96% | 25.96% | 25.88% | 15.14% |
| 2023 | 26.06% | 5.19% | 5.28% | 3.88% | 8.74% | 5.68% | 13.26% | 55.04% | 15.97% |
| 2022 | -18.04% | -22.90% | 2.09% | -17.83% | -15.23% | 5.65% | 0.55% | -32.43% | -6.96% |
| 2021 | 28.47% | 22.41% | 0.04% | -4.42% | 1.02% | 18.86% | -3.75% | 27.52% | 21.34% |
| 2020 | 18.02% | 34.16% | 0.36% | 11.33% | 10.60% | 10.43% | 24.17% | 48.76% | 9.29% |
| 2019 | 31.21% | 11.92% | 2.11% | 9.64% | 15.25% | 3.69% | 19.08% | 39.06% | 25.28% |
| 2018 | -4.23% | -16.21% | 1.97% | -0.02% | -3.18% | 4.52% | -0.93% | -0.25% | -3.55% |
| 2017 | 21.61% | 15.13% | 0.95% | 2.80% | 9.15% | 6.21% | 12.66% | 32.70% | 27.58% |
| 2016 | 11.77% | 17.02% | 0.32% | 0.69% | 11.52% | 5.31% | 8.10% | 6.84% | 15.92% |
| 2015 | 1.38% | -9.12% | 0.05% | 1.28% | -1.50% | 5.19% | -12.11% | 9.30% | 0.12% |
| 2014 | 13.52% | 1.53% | 0.03% | 10.75% | 10.75% | 4.50% | 0.12% | 18.88% | 9.89% |
| 2013 | 32.15% | 50.30% | 0.06% | -9.10% | -1.13% | 10.72% | -27.61% | 36.07% | 29.28% |
| 2012 | 15.89% | 18.96% | 0.09% | 2.97% | 9.40% | 6.44% | 5.68% | 17.87% | 9.62% |
| 2011 | 2.10% | -14.04% | 0.05% | 16.04% | 12.26% | -3.89% | 12.02% | 3.62% | 7.85% |
| 2010 | 14.82% | 27.73% | 0.14% | 8.46% | 9.40% | -4.12% | 29.24% | 20.41% | 13.68% |
| 2009 | 25.94% | 46.94% | 0.15% | -11.12% | 19.96% | -3.85% | 25.04% | 55.23% | 21.79% |
| 2008 | -36.55% | -44.68% | 1.40% | 20.10% | -3.44% | -12.00% | 4.32% | -41.31% | -31.99% |
| 2007 | 5.48% | -9.11% | 4.48% | 10.21% | 4.90% | -5.40% | 31.92% | 19.74% | 9.41% |
| 2006 | 15.61% | 18.40% | 4.85% | 1.96% | 5.27% | 1.73% | 23.20% | 7.64% | 19.31% |
| 2005 | 4.83% | 3.78% | 3.22% | 2.87% | 5.13% | 13.51% | 17.77% | 2.20% | 1.78% |
| 2004 | 10.74% | 17.30% | 1.40% | 4.49% | 10.33% | 13.64% | 4.65% | 11.10% | 5.42% |
| 2003 | 28.36% | 91.23% | 1.03% | 0.38% | 12.38% | 9.81% | 19.89% | 49.87% | 27.83% |
| 2002 | -21.97% | -3.61% | 1.64% | 15.12% | 12.06% | 9.56% | 25.57% | -37.58% | -14.93% |
| 2001 | -11.85% | 32.14% | 3.48% | 5.57% | 8.60% | 6.68% | 0.75% | -32.65% | -5.43% |
| 2000 | -9.03% | -9.13% | 6.00% | 16.66% | 9.38% | 9.29% | -5.44% | -36.84% | -4.67% |
| 1999 | 20.89% | 37.71% | 4.78% | -8.25% | 0.97% | 7.68% | 0.85% | 101.95% | 27.10% |
| 1998 | 28.34% | -13.47% | 4.91% | 14.92% | 8.10% | 6.44% | -0.83% | 85.30% | 17.84% |
| 1997 | 33.10% | 22.06% | 5.20% | 9.94% | 11.30% | 4.02% | -21.41% | 20.63% | 24.60% |
| 1996 | 22.68% | 14.79% | 5.15% | 1.43% | 5.28% | 2.43% | -4.59% | 42.54% | 28.28% |
| 1995 | 37.20% | 32.12% | 5.66% | 23.48% | 20.09% | 1.79% | 0.98% | 42.54% | 36.12% |
| 1994 | 1.33% | -4.76% | 4.37% | -8.04% | -1.23% | 2.52% | -2.17% | 1.50% | 4.39% |
| 1993 | 9.97% | 25.56% | 3.07% | 14.21% | 16.44% | 2.16% | 17.68% | 10.58% | 16.56% |
| 1992 | 7.49% | 25.34% | 3.51% | 9.36% | 13.68% | 0.82% | -5.73% | 8.86% | 7.09% |
| 1991 | 30.23% | 46.07% | 5.54% | 15.00% | 16.40% | -0.17% | -8.56% | 64.99% | 23.93% |
| 1990 | -3.06% | -27.77% | 7.75% | 6.24% | 5.65% | -0.69% | -3.11% | -10.41% | -1.66% |
| 1989 | 31.48% | 6.96% | 8.39% | 17.69% | 16.31% | 4.39% | -2.84% | 26.17% | 30.13% |
| 1988 | 16.54% | 17.15% | 6.89% | 8.22% | 15.68% | 7.22% | -15.26% | 13.54% | 14.65% |
| 1987 | 5.81% | -14.00% | 5.96% | -4.96% | 1.12% | 7.85% | 24.53% | 10.50% | 5.12% |
| 1986 | 18.49% | 2.09% | 6.15% | 24.28% | 22.15% | 9.61% | 18.96% | 6.89% | 26.26% |
| 1985 | 31.24% | 24.51% | 7.72% | 25.71% | 23.86% | 7.47% | 6.00% | — | 32.13% |
| 1984 | 6.15% | -14.50% | 9.92% | 13.73% | 15.62% | 4.68% | -19.38% | — | -0.08% |
| 1983 | 22.34% | 34.86% | 8.95% | 3.20% | 16.19% | 4.75% | -16.80% | — | 25.08% |
| 1982 | 20.42% | 26.85% | 11.09% | 32.81% | 29.05% | 0.56% | 15.62% | — | 24.98% |
| 1981 | -4.70% | -4.29% | 14.04% | 8.20% | 8.46% | 5.10% | -32.60% | — | -4.69% |
| 1980 | 31.74% | 41.92% | 11.39% | -2.99% | -3.32% | 7.40% | 15.19% | — | 20.11% |
| 1979 | 18.52% | 41.69% | 10.05% | 0.67% | -2.01% | 13.74% | 126.55% | — | 8.57% |
| 1978 | 6.51% | 28.89% | 7.18% | -0.78% | 3.14% | 15.72% | 37.01% | — | 0.72% |
| 1977 | -6.98% | 30.29% | 5.26% | 1.29% | 9.95% | 14.65% | 22.64% | — | -13.80% |
| 1976 | 23.83% | 48.62% | 4.98% | 15.98% | 19.75% | 8.18% | -4.10% | — | 23.16% |
| 1975 | 37.00% | 59.68% | 5.79% | 3.61% | 11.05% | 6.77% | -24.80% | — | 43.85% |
| 1974 | -25.90% | -26.90% | 7.85% | 1.99% | -4.38% | 10.07% | 66.15% | — | -25.25% |
| 1973 | -14.31% | -38.80% | 7.04% | 3.66% | 4.32% | 3.42% | 72.96% | — | -14.24% |
| 1972 | 18.76% | 0.16% | 4.06% | 2.82% | 11.41% | 2.98% | 48.78% | — | 18.02% |
| 1971 | 14.22% | 15.96% | 4.33% | 9.79% | 14.00% | 4.24% | 16.69% | — | 9.51% |
| 1970 | 3.56% | -18.78% | 6.39% | 16.75% | 5.65% | 8.22% | -9.45% | — | 7.96% |
| 1969 | -8.24% | -32.95% | 6.67% | -5.01% | -2.03% | 6.99% | 5.01% | — | -12.82% |
| 1968 | 10.81% | 60.69% | 5.34% | 3.27% | 4.85% | 4.13% | 12.47% | — | 7.40% |
| 1967 | 23.80% | 115.87% | 4.29% | -1.58% | 0.90% | 2.32% | -0.51% | — | 19.23% |
| 1966 | -9.97% | -9.47% | 4.86% | 2.91% | -3.45% | 1.22% | 0.03% | — | -16.35% |
| 1965 | 12.40% | 45.24% | 3.95% | 0.72% | 3.19% | 1.66% | 0.06% | — | 14.21% |
| 1964 | 16.42% | 23.25% | 3.55% | 3.73% | 5.16% | 1.26% | 0.03% | — | 18.24% |
| 1963 | 22.61% | 19.65% | 3.16% | 1.68% | 5.46% | 2.14% | -0.40% | — | 20.86% |
| 1962 | -8.81% | -9.78% | 2.77% | 5.69% | 6.50% | 0.32% | -0.06% | — | -7.78% |
| 1961 | 26.64% | 29.45% | 2.35% | 2.06% | 5.10% | 0.98% | -0.06% | — | 22.86% |
| 1960 | 0.34% | -3.57% | 2.87% | 11.64% | 6.66% | 0.77% | 0.48% | — | -6.17% |
| 1959 | 12.06% | 12.70% | 3.39% | -2.65% | 1.57% | 0.11% | 0.00% | — | 20.82% |
| 1958 | 43.72% | 68.80% | 1.77% | -2.10% | 6.43% | 0.66% | 0.43% | — | 39.32% |
| 1957 | -10.46% | -15.19% | 3.22% | 6.80% | -0.72% | 2.72% | -0.11% | — | -9.11% |
| 1956 | 7.44% | -0.89% | 2.62% | -2.26% | -2.35% | 0.91% | -0.11% | — | 6.36% |
| 1955 | 32.60% | 26.72% | 1.72% | -1.34% | 2.04% | 0.00% | -0.03% | — | 25.84% |
| 1954 | 52.56% | 64.97% | 0.94% | 3.29% | 6.16% | 0.92% | 0.57% | — | 50.44% |
| 1953 | -1.21% | -5.97% | 1.89% | 4.14% | 1.62% | 11.52% | 0.69% | — | 0.85% |
| 1952 | 18.15% | 1.02% | 1.72% | 2.27% | 4.44% | 4.41% | -0.35% | — | 13.62% |
| 1951 | 23.68% | 3.87% | 1.52% | -0.30% | -0.19% | 6.05% | 0.00% | — | 20.09% |
| 1950 | 30.81% | 52.81% | 1.20% | 0.43% | 4.24% | 3.64% | 9.56% | — | 23.75% |
| 1949 | 18.30% | 27.60% | 1.12% | 4.66% | 5.38% | 0.09% | -8.70% | — | 18.52% |
| 1948 | 5.70% | -0.01% | 1.05% | 1.95% | 3.44% | 2.06% | 0.00% | — | 2.57% |
| 1947 | 5.20% | -1.74% | 0.60% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 21.26% | 0.00% | — | 6.83% |
| 1946 | -8.43% | -13.73% | 0.38% | 3.13% | 2.51% | 24.10% | 0.00% | — | -4.28% |
| 1945 | 35.82% | 94.41% | 0.38% | 3.80% | 6.80% | 11.78% | 2.54% | — | 31.72% |
| 1944 | 19.03% | 71.15% | 0.38% | 2.58% | 6.57% | 16.58% | 0.00% | — | 16.80% |
| 1943 | 25.06% | 143.02% | 0.38% | 2.49% | 8.04% | 11.45% | 0.00% | — | 18.93% |
| 1942 | 19.17% | 63.01% | 0.34% | 2.29% | 5.18% | 3.33% | 0.00% | — | 13.53% |
| 1941 | -12.77% | -6.75% | 0.13% | -2.02% | 5.01% | -8.38% | 0.00% | — | -10.30% |
| 1940 | -10.67% | -32.88% | 0.04% | 5.40% | 8.65% | 3.31% | -1.66% | — | -7.92% |
| 1939 | -1.10% | -4.86% | 0.05% | 4.41% | 7.98% | -1.30% | -1.23% | — | 1.74% |
| 1938 | 29.28% | 5.16% | 0.07% | 4.21% | 9.24% | -0.87% | 0.17% | — | 33.82% |
| 1937 | -35.34% | -53.94% | 0.28% | 1.38% | -4.42% | 2.56% | -0.23% | — | -29.13% |
| 1936 | 31.94% | 96.41% | 0.17% | 5.02% | 11.38% | 3.22% | 0.09% | — | 29.81% |
| 1935 | 46.74% | 54.90% | 0.17% | 4.47% | 13.31% | 9.77% | 0.43% | — | 44.07% |
| 1934 | -1.19% | 23.07% | 0.28% | 7.96% | 18.82% | 2.91% | 31.75% | — | 8.83% |
| 1933 | 49.98% | 146.60% | 0.96% | 1.86% | 12.97% | -3.81% | 27.26% | — | 75.86% |
| 1932 | -8.64% | 28.65% | 1.07% | 8.79% | 23.59% | -10.47% | 21.28% | — | -17.68% |
| 1931 | -43.84% | -43.62% | 2.31% | -2.56% | -15.68% | -8.15% | -17.38% | — | -49.59% |
| 1930 | -25.12% | -48.35% | 4.55% | 4.54% | 0.54% | -4.30% | 0.10% | — | -30.13% |
| 1929 | -8.30% | -46.08% | 3.16% | 4.20% | 3.02% | -2.06% | -0.15% | — | -13.19% |
| 1928 | 43.81% | 62.15% | 3.08% | 0.84% | 3.22% | 1.49% | 0.10% | — | 54.89% |
All equity series are total return with dividends reinvested; for US Tech 100 and US Blue Chip 30, dividends are estimated from approximate historical dividend yields. T-Bill uses the average rate during the year.
Sources & last update
Data refreshes automatically every year on January 20, after the annual dataset is published. Last consulted: September 26, 2026 at 1:09 AM UTC.
Performance disclaimer. Performance data shown is illustrative. Historical performance, whether simulated, hypothetical, or actual, does not guarantee future results. Index values are calculated using publicly available market data and may differ from actual investment outcomes. See full disclaimers at /legal.